Ask Yourself A Simple Question. TravelMole guest comment by Debbie Hindle, managing director of bgb communications

What would you do if a quarter of your workforce was unable to work for as long as six months?

This is a simple and prudent question that anyone in the travel industry should be asking themselves as the medical profession continues to advise that there is a risk of a global influenza pandemic in the future.

Prudent businesses are already considering what they should do to put proper business contingency plans in place against the risk that Avian flu mutates into a new virus that can pass from human-to-human and becomes a “pandemic influenza”.

Pandemic influenza is more serious than “ordinary flu” because few, if any people will have immunity to it.

It would travel the world rapidly and, once it reached the UK, it would affect all major centres of the UK population within two weeks, according to the Department of Health.

During SARS in 2003, measures were put in place to restrict the movement of infected people, which helped to bring the disease under control.

But the UK Department of Health says “Influenza is more infectious than SARS, is most infectious early in the course of the disease (possibly before symptoms begin) and has a much shorter incubation period of one to three days.

“These important differences make it unlikely that similar interventions will do more than delay, or slow the transmission of pandemic influenza at best.”

It’s worth comparing what we face now with the experience of SARS. In April 2003, when SARS had hit  Hong Kong, the city received just half a million visitors compared to 1.4 million in the same month a year earlier. Occupancy rates plunged to 22% compared to 85% in April 2002.

Do you remember your initial views of SARS as the news first emerged? At first the industry and media perception was that this was a crisis that was “owned” by Asia.  If you were an hotelier in Canada during the early days of SARS, why would you think it would affect you?  Why would the World Health Organisation have anything to say that could affect how many travellers arrived in your hotel?

When SARS happened Hong Kong and the rest of the world was not prepared. Sandra Lee, the Permanent Secretary for Economic Development and Labour in Hong Kong said they had faced an “unknown disease, from an unknown source, with unknown methods of transmission and no known treatment.” She also said that the first lesson her government learnt from SARS was that: “by not having access to accurate information we were not as prepared as we should have been, and the situation quickly deteriorated.” 

To quote an Economic View published by Gary Duncan: “SARS infected only 8,000 people worldwide, killing 775 but Hong Kong was tipped into recession. In Canada just 44 people died but the economy shrank…The Congressional Budget Office predicts that a global flu pandemic would cut US GDP by 4.7%, a blow slightly harder than that inflicted by typical US recessions since the second world war.”

So what can we learn from this experience? This time its different. We are being warned of the threat. We know what the disease may be. We can be better prepared.

While drugs are being stockpiled to treat symptoms, medical experts agree it would be at least six months from pandemic flu appearing to a vaccine being available. A vaccine can’t be created until scientists know what form it has mutated into. That gap of time will have considerable impact on what staff can do, or when people would be prepared to start travelling more widely again.

So I’d urge tourism businesses not to believe that the risk of pandemic flu is just a problem facing other parts of the world. It may not happen. But it may, either now or in the future.

I heartily concur with VisitBritain which says, when considering a crisis, “let’s not worship the risk”.

We shouldn’t overstate the probability of a major pandemic, but we must be prepared, and be ready to reassure the public and our own colleagues that we are prepared to deal with this effectively if this ever becomes necessary.

So what should a prudent business be considering about this issue?

Manning your organisation

First; how would you staff your organisation if up to 25% per cent of staff were off work – either people who are ill, or who may need to take time off to care for others. Some banks have announced they are considering how to manage with just half their normal staff.

Consider what your minimum staffing levels are to run your organisation. What is the front line group of essential staff required to keep things running? Can you train or redeploy staff now to broaden the skills within your company? One delegate at the ABTA Convention in Marrakesh said he had actually trained more agents to issue tickets rather than having one tier of staff trained to do this.

Is there accommodation near your offices to help staff if transport home is difficult or disrupted? Can you establish links to allow them to work from home? Can you relax your requirement for staff to get an official sick note after three days?

Cash Flow

Andy Cooper of the Federation of Tour Operators made the very strong point at the ABTA Convention that if travel is seriously disrupted during a pandemic, businesses should consider the impact on cash and aim to retain extra operational costs as a separate reserve. If you’ve not got that it’s worth building up cash reserves now.

Keeping People Informed

If a pandemic occurs the government would be making announcements on TV and radio and through www.nhsdirect.co.uk

But be prepared in advance. Collect suitable information and plan for the communications you will need for staff and customers.

There is a nifty little leaflet called “Important Information For You And Your Family” which has been published on www.dh.gov.uk/pandemicflu . It’s also translated into 20 languages, which is helpful depending on your workforce, or customer base. This gives basic advice about how simple things like covering your nose and mouth when sneezing can reduce, but not eliminate, the risk of catching or spreading influenza.

And  – of course – be prepared for the relentless pressure for information about how you are communicating with and looking after staff and customers over a sustained period.

There are already a lot of high-level discussions going on between government and the travel industry. VisitBritain has already established a Tourism Emergency Response Group, which worked very successfully to coordinate industry responses to the London bombs earlier this year. The FTO and ABTA are working with the Department of Health to ensure travel is considered and involved in any health-related contingency planning. On a global scale the World Tourism Organisation has met the World Health Organisation to discuss best working practices.

So let me say again an influenza pandemic may not happen. Let’s not worship the risk. But it is absolutely right for us all to be prepared at every level. 

I’m practicing what I preach and investing in technology, training and health advice for my staff  to make sure that we could become a virtual company in the event of a pandemic.

We’re making preparations so all our people can work remotely from home – including our financial department – and we’ll be  able to continue to support clients during what would be a very busy time for crisis communications.

So is it time to ask yourself a few simple questions?

*Useful links For Health Information and Advice:

www.dh.gov.uk/pandemicflu for details of contingency planning and public information leaflets

www.hpa.org.uk the UK health protection agency

www.fco.gov.uk – Know Before You Go campaign will contain latest advice for outbound travellers

www.who.int  World Health Organisation for a global view and factsheets

www.who.int/csr/en to review the latest developments regarding avian influenza

www.defra.gov.uk

www.nhsdirect.co.uk for consumer health advice

www.nathnac.org – National Travel Health Network an organisation funded by the Department of Health with more specific health measures

www.abta.com

Useful links for business contingency planning:

www.docleaf.com Docleaf is a global leader in the field of emergency planning, crisis management and business contingency

www.businesscontinuity.org

www.survive.com 

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