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Bird flu report offers chilling predictions
A recent report on the effects of bird flu in Australia predicts dire consequences for the travel industry.
The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) report warned that air transport would be one of the sectors hardest hit in a global catastrophe that could kill up to 40,000 Australians and wipe 6.8 per cent off gross domestic product.
Air transport would fall by between 9.5 per cent in Queensland and 12.1 per cent in the Northern Territory. The tourism industry would be devastated by a slump of up to 19.2 per cent, depending on the state, as disease crippled the economy.
The ABARE study assumes 40 per cent of the population would be infected and that an outbreak would follow the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic to cause a high mortality rate in the key 19-to-45 age group.
Illness and absenteeism would slash labour productivity and travel would be restricted by quarantine measures.
Airlines and tourism would also suffer as consumers shunned goods and activities likely to put them at risk of infection.
“The transport sector, particularly air transport services, is estimated to decline by 11 per cent relative to the reference case,” the report says.
Australian authorities are considering a plan that would see thousands of people quarantined, probably mostly at home, if a deadly flu pandemic struck.
Graham Muldoon
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