China, India, Montenegro and Russia tipped to power future tourism demand

‘Heathly and stable progress’ in worldwide travel and tourism growth – generating $7 trillion – has been forecast for 2007.

The figure is predicted to almost double to $13 trillion over the next decade, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council’s latest Tourism Satellite Account research.

Travel and tourism demand in 2007 is set to grow by 3.9%, according to the WTTC, releasing its latest forecast at the ITB trade show in Berlin. 

“This forecast points to a mature but steady phase of growth for world travel and tourism in the short and medium term, averaging 4.3% per annum, between 2008 and 2017,” the report says.

“In contrast to the steep end of the curve experienced in 2006, 2007 is a year where growth trajectories are rounding off to more mature levels. The outlook is one of healthy and stable progress for the industry.”

The world’s largest travel and tourism economies are holding strong in the top 10 list for 2007. The US continues in its pole position with travel and tourism demand accounting for more than $1,689.3 billion.

China is set to leapfrog Japan into second position by 2017, buoyed by a percentage growth in real terms of 9.6% a year over the next 10 years.

The Russian Federation will enter the top 10 list of countries expected to total the largest amount on travel and tourism demand by 2017.

Countries set to grow fastest over 2007 and the decade to come are identified as Montenegro, China and India, with demand growing each year at a rate of 10.1%, 9.1% and 7.9% respectively.

“These countries have consistently appeared in the top three positions over the past four years, consolidating their growth year on year,” according to the report.

“Countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chad who also figure in the top ten are boosted to these positions as a result of a sudden or sharp rebound in their economy and travel and tourism activity.”

Other countries featured on WTTC’s high performers list include Croatia, Romania and Namibia.

Guido Haarmann, transportation and travel service practice senior executive at Accenture, which helped produce the report, said: “Only those travel companies which succeed in achieving a balance between cost leadership and innovation will profit from the predicted growth.

“Too often, tourism products are commodity and are hardly differentiated from each other.

“The only companies who will be successful will be those who offer tailored holiday solutions – not those who simply reduce costs.

“The path to successful relationships with the tourist end-customer is masterful orchestration of the distribution channels.”

WTTC president Jean-Claude Baumgarten described the forecasts as presenting “a more dynamic and challenging business environment than ever before”.

He said: “Our thriving industry can certainly generate jobs and can spread prosperity around the world.

“However, the full potential of travel and tourism can only realized, with the full and long term support of government. Issues such as infrastructure, education and the sustainable development of travel and tourism can only be addressed – effectively – with public and private sector partners working in synergy.”

by Phil Davies