Climate change: highest risk countries revealed

Thailand floods

Vulnerability index ranks countries in danger of climate induced disaster

A major new mapping study has revealed some of the world’s fastest growing populations are increasingly at risk from the impacts of climate related natural hazards and sea level rise.
Many of the countries with the fastest population growth are rated as ‘extreme risk’ in the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) released by risk analysis and mapping firm Maplecroft. These include the emerging economies of Bangladesh (2nd), Philippines (10th), Viet Nam (23rd), Indonesia (27th) and India (28th).

Of the world’s 20 fastest growing cities, six have been classified as ‘extreme risk’ by the CCVI, including the major Asian economic centres of Calcutta in India, Manila in the Philippines, Jakarta in Indonesia and Dhaka and Chittagong in Bangladesh. Addis Ababa in Ethiopia also features. A further 10 are rated as ‘high risk’ including Guangdong, Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Karachi and Lagos.

According to Maplecroft, population growth in these cities combines with poor government effectiveness, corruption, poverty and other socio-economic factors to increase the risks to residents and business. Infrastructures, which cannot cope at 2011 levels, will therefore struggle to adapt to large population rises in the future, making disaster responses less effective, whilst at the same time these disasters themselves may become more frequent. This has implications for buildings, transportation routes, water and energy supply and the health of the residents.

“Cities such as Manila, Jakarta and Calcutta are vital centres of economic growth in key emerging markets, but heat waves, flooding, water shortages and increasingly severe and frequent storm events may well increase as climate changes takes hold” states Principal Environmental Analyst at Maplecroft Dr Charlie Beldon. “The impacts of this could have far reaching consequences, not only for local populations, but on business, national economies and on the balance sheets of investors around the world, particularly as the economic importance of these nations is set to dramatically increase.”

“The expansion of population must be met with an equal expansion of infrastructure and civic amenities. As these megacities grow, more people are forced to live on exposed land, often on flood plains or other marginal land, adds Dr Beldon. “It is therefore the poorest citizens that will be most exposed to the effects of climate change, and the least able to cope with the effects.”

This is witnessed by the large slum populations, which are present in many of the rapidly growing cities and where residents frequently have fragile livelihoods and poor access to basic resources, such as clean water.  In Calcutta, which is predicted to increase by 3.1 million people to18.7 million by 2020, approximately one third of the current population live in slums. Calcutta is highly exposed to sea level rise and coastal flooding and the predicted population growth will place more people within these vulnerable areas.

Thailand is presently bearing the brunt of a potential climate related disaster. Since July nearly 350 people have died in severe floods. Government estimates suggest that the floods have cost up to $US3.9 bn so far and economic growth forecasts have been correspondingly cut.

Valere Tjolle
Valere is editor of the Sustainable Tourism Report Suite 2011 Get your copy at a special offer price: HERE