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COP 15 NOW THE BAD NEWS FOR TOURISM 2010+
Tuesday, 02 Jan, 2010
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OK COP15 is now over, the participants dispersed, minor triumph or major disaster, wrap up opinions are now set and recriminations/plaudits have begun.
Whether it was a failure or a success is totally irrelevant. What has actually been agreed and will be put into practice is the really important information, which we’ll need to make decisions for the future.
To do that, we’re going to have to try to understand two, worrying, points of view that any measures will have to engage with in future legislation :
The ‘Green’ Lobby:
“Man-made climate change is a proven fact and we’re going to have to combat it in any way we can and as soon as possible. If we don’t do this, our grandchildren and succeeding generations will be condemned to a truly terrible climate, poverty, starvation and frequent climatic-created natural disasters. Adaptation to climate change effects is not enough, we need to mitigate them wherever possible by the use of green energy and a non-waste society. This will build a whole new green economy and respect for the environment with opportunities for all.”
The ‘Anti-Green’ Lobby:
“Man-made climate change is not proven, if it actually happens we’ll deal with it. WE have the means and the finance to o so. In any case all the ‘Green’ cures represent a massive transfer of wealth to less developed countries and we simply can’t afford it. Nor, given the global political situation, do we want to give them any more money and/or power. We want to use the assets we have for OUR people to develop and prosper. So, even if climate change takes place – and it’s as bad as they say – it will provide a natural cull of the burgeoning population which the world can’t afford to feed anyway. We’ll look after ourselves.”
So, in very simple terms, the COP15 outcome represented a stalemate between these two forces. Who knows how long it will last?
The tourism industry is generally pro green because it represents more effort spent in mitigation (less potential destination damage, more good pr, tourism’s potential in the new green economy).
If the green lobby wins, there will be a price that tourism will have to pay – transportation of all sorts will have major green taxes applied; accommodation will have to invest in green measures, source market economies will be drained of ready cash to bolster up efforts in less developed countries – but, if it succeeds it will all be worth it. The prizes will be more markets, better destinations, less catastrophic booking-cancelling changes and more green opportunities involving tourism.
If the anti-green lobby wins, there are two potential price tags – nothing or everything! The downturn risk is that the price tourism will have to pay may be quite enormous – imagine a tourism world stripped of most small islands, devoid of many beach destinations and subject to frequent savage storms. Imagine also impoverished, starving host destinations, denied international support welcoming the few wealthy and intrepid tourists prepared to travel.
Obviously these are the two extremes and the next few years are set to see a giant struggle between both parties with a great deal at stake. Just like the banking crisis but with less current and apparent motivation.
Initial signals will come from the markets. At the moment carbon is low and extractive commodities like oil and gold are high. Clearly this signals that, in the opinion of the markets, the greens are on the run, when the situation reverses itself, so will the market’s opinion of the struggle result.
Let’s all hope that it doesn’t take too long for a cohesive, global agreement to be reached – apart from the fact that delay will do no good for commercial decisions, it will also reduce the number of courses of action that we have available to us.
Valere Tjolle
Get a copy of the full 2009/10 Tourism Ministers Briefing.
The FULL 30pp/8000 word précis, roundup, interpretation and analysis of 2009 Events includes COP15, WTM, UNWTO Kazakhstan Assembly and Gothenburg Tourism Symposium/Green Economy and much, much more. See: www.travelmole.com/stories/1139697.php
Valere
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