Cruise prices set to drop

CruiseCompete CEO says cruise lines have overplayed their hand

CruiseCompete has released its monthly Cruise Trend report for the month of July 2012.

Bob Levinstein, CEO of CruiseCompete, told TravelMole that the overall statistics (based on actual double occupancy rooms booked by travelers) look better than the actual robustness of cruise industry in 2012.

"The index would indicate fairly strong sales. However, other sources
tell me that has not been the case. This indicates that the lines have overplayed their hand, i.e., have been trying to charge more than the market will bear.  This suggests that there will need to be a course
correction and prices will drop.

"Cruise business took a pretty big hit this year due to warm winter in North America, Costa’s sinking and other back cruise news (three or four sick ships, a passenger robbed in Mexico, a collision or two and a few other not so positive incidents). Add all this stuff together and demand was down in the first quarter. Forty percent of the year’s cabins get sold in these first three months."

Going forward, Levinstein sees prices going down, especially toward the end of the year.

"In June, the lines have overestimated demand. Empty cabins don’t gamble in the casino," he said.

"The game is: first you worry about filling the cabins and then you worry about getting the best prices. We’re going to see a lot of bargains in the fall."

CruiseCompete Survey for July

The CruiseCompete Cruise Index for July 2012 was $146, increasing one point over June 2012, and three points over July of 2011. Regional pricing indices stayed stable or saw an increase in all regions, except the Bahamas and Mexico, from June 2012. The CruiseCompete Cruise Index is calculated based on the average daily per-passenger (double occupancy) cost for the lowest-priced oceanview cabin category on a seven-night cruise on the six largest North American cruise lines.

Other statistics reflected in the survey include:

Most popular cruise lines in each category
(Based on the total number of quote requests for each cruise line in the given month)
1. Premium/Contemporary: Carnival Cruise Line 
2. Luxury: Oceania Cruises 
3. River Cruises: Viking River Cruises

Most popular cruise ships in each category
(Based on the total number of quote requests for each ship) 
1. Premium/Contemporary: Oasis of the Seas 
2. Luxury: Queen Mary 2 
3. River: American Queen-Great American Steamboat Company

Most popular cruise regions in each category
(Based on the total number of quote requests for each region) 
1. Premium/Contemporary: Caribbean
2. Luxury: Europe 
3. River: Europe

by Gretchen Kelly