Final call to save the world from climate catastrophe

What will happen to travel and tourism?

It’s the final call, say scientists, the most extensive warning yet on the risks of rising global temperatures. And what of tourism in this future?

Said Stefan Gossling, tourism and climate change guru: "We want a maximum warming of 1.5°C because anything above this level constitutes a high risk to ecosystems and the human economy depending on ecosystems. Tourism is already affected – drought or heavy rainfall, wildfires, outbreaks of pests, storms and hurricanes all have had negative repercussions for tourism around the world, and the evidence is that these incidences will increase.

Tourism itself is responsible for at least five, and perhaps up to eight percent of global warming. Yet, the sector is doing nothing to reduce its impact, which I expect to double over the next 20 years as a result of non-action."

"The inaction to deal with tourism emissions includes the following

• failure of politicians to price carbon, and of businesses to support carbon pricing
• the aviation industry’s focus on systems that have no credibility or practicability, such as the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
• the lack of any systemic change towards more sustainable operations, including, specifically, low carbon food offers

 Stefan Gossling is co-author of the seminal UNEP Report detailing climate change and tourism: Climate Change  Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism Sector:

 Anyone in the travel industry should read it now!

A sobering new report issued by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that the world is rapidly running out of time to scale back greenhouse gas emissions. The document says that global warming must be kept within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to stave off catastrophic planetary changes. To do that, fossil fuels must be aggressively phased out to meet net-zero emissions by mid-century. More immediately, emissions would have to drop by about 45 percent below 2010 levels by 2030

Their dramatic report on keeping that rise under 1.5 degrees C says the world is now completely off track, heading instead towards 3C.

Keeping to the preferred target of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels will mean "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society".

It will be hugely expensive – but the window of opportunity remains open.

"The first is that limiting warming to 1.5C brings a lot of benefits compared with limiting it to two degrees. It really reduces the impacts of climate change in very important ways," said Prof Jim Skea, who co-chairs the IPCC.

"The second is the unprecedented nature of the changes that are required if we are to limit warming to 1.5C – changes to energy systems, changes to the way we manage land, changes to the way we move around with transportation."

"Scientists might want to write in capital letters, ‘ACT NOW, IDIOTS,’ but they need to say that with facts and numbers," said Kaisa Kosonen, of Greenpeace, who was an observer at the negotiations. "And they have."

The researchers have used these facts and numbers to paint a picture of the world with a dangerous fever, caused by humans. We used to think if we could keep warming below two degrees this century, then the changes we would experience would be manageable.

Not any more. This new study says that going past 1.5C is dicing with the planet’s liveability. And the 1.5C temperature "guard rail" could be exceeded in just 12 years, in 2030.

We can stay below it – but it will require urgent, large-scale changes from governments and individuals and we will have to invest a massive pile of cash every year, about 2.5% of global gross domestic product (GDP), the value of all goods and services produced, for two decades.

Even then, we will still need machines, trees and plants to capture carbon from the air that we can then store deep underground – forever.

The report says there must be rapid and significant changes in four big global systems:

But it adds that the world cannot meet its target without changes by individuals, urging people to avoid planes and business travel…

Buy less meat, milk, cheese and butter and more locally sourced seasonal food – and throw less of it away • drive electric cars but walk or cycle short distances • take trains and buses instead of planes • use videoconferencing instead of business travel • use a washing line instead of a tumble dryer • insulate homes • demand low carbon in every consumer product

Five steps to 1.5

• Global emissions of CO2 need to decline by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030
• Renewables are estimated to provide up to 85% of global electricity by 2050
• Coal is expected to reduce to close to zero
• Up to seven million sq km of land will be needed for energy crops (a bit less than the size of Australia)
• Global net zero emissions by 2050

The researchers say that if we fail to keep temperature rises below 1.5C, we are in for some significant and dangerous changes to our world.

You can kiss coral reefs goodbye, as the report says they would be essentially 100% wiped out at two degrees of warming.

Global sea-level will rise about 10cm (4in) more if we let warming go to 2C. That may not sound like much but keeping to 1.5C means that 10 million fewer people would be exposed to the risks of flooding.

There are also significant impacts on ocean temperatures and acidity, and the ability to grow crops such as rice, maize and wheat.

"We are already in the danger zone at one degree of warming," said Kaisa Kosonen, from Greenpeace. "Both poles are melting at an accelerated rate; ancient trees that have been there for hundreds of years are suddenly dying; and the summer we’ve just experienced – basically, the whole world was on fire."

Is this plan at all feasible?

Campaigners and environmentalists, who have welcomed the report, say there is simply no time left for debate.

"This is the moment where we need to decide" said Kaisa Kosonen. "We want to move to clean energy, sustainable lifestyles. We want to protect our forests and species. This is the moment that we will remember; this is the year when the turning point happened."

Further info: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/

Valere Tjolle

Valere is editor and publisher of Sustainable Tourism 0.2 which deals with travel and tourism and climate change amongst other sustainable tourism issues.