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ForwardKeys says it was right about ‘Trump Slump’
Trends specialist ForwardKeys has shared data which backs up its warning of a ‘Trump Slump’ hitting US tourism.
It says its analysis of more than 17 million booking transactions a day shows international air arrivals in the US have fallen consistently since President Donald Trump’s first travel ban on people from several mainly Muslim countries.
The fall also coincides with a strengthening US dollar.
The firm identified a slump earlier in the year but some in the industry disputed its analysis.
ForwardKeys co-founder and CEO Olivier Jager said: "Whilst disappointed for the USA by the latest travel data, we are relieved that the quality of our analysis last April, which was heavily questioned at the time, has been vindicated."
Since January 27 this year, when the first controversial travel ban was introduced, there has been an overall decline of 1.4% compared to the same period last year.
Meanwhile international arrivals in the rest of the world show an overall increase of 4.6% over the same period.
The decline in travel to the US is not just from the affected countries but from around the world.
Only travel from elsewhere in the Americas, and Africa – which has a small 2.1% market share of travel to the US – has shown growth.
Europe, with a 39.4% market share, slumped by 2.3% over the year to the end of September. Asia Pacific, with a 23% market share, was down 3.8%.~
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Bev
Editor in chief Bev Fearis has been a travel journalist for 25 years. She started her career at Travel Weekly, where she became deputy news editor, before joining Business Traveller as deputy editor and launching the magazine’s website. She has also written travel features, news and expert comment for the Guardian, Observer, Times, Telegraph, Boundless and other consumer titles and was named one of the top 50 UK travel journalists by the Press Gazette.
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