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Global tourism in line for 2010 recovery?
Sunday, 06 Oct, 2009
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Stronger prospects for a recovery in the tourism sector in 2010 are being indicated, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation.
These include macroeconomic upward revisions from the IMF together with preliminary international tourism figures up to August.
“This suggests some moderation in the declining results of the first half of this year,” the UNWTO said.
A UNWTO Panel of Experts Confidence Index also reflects stronger confidence in market conditions.
International arrivals declined by 4% in July, a relative improvement when compared to decreases of 10% in May and 7% in June, the organisation said.
Many destinations show a similar pattern of a gradual change for the better, particularly in Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
In absolute terms, the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide reached 500 million in the first seven months of 2009, down from 540 million in the same period of 2008.
In absolute terms, the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide reached 500 million in the first seven months of 2009, down from 540 million in the same period of 2008.
Arrivals in 2009 are currently between the levels of 2007 and 2006. The first seven months of the year generally account for roughly 57% of the total annual number.
Economic conditions, combined with the uncertainties brought about by the swine flu are expected to continue impacting tourism demand – at least in the short term.
As decline rates are anticipated to ease during the remainder of 2009, international tourism is forecast to decrease within a range of -6% and -4% this year.
And though many sub-regions might return to growth in the last months of 2009, this will not be enough to compensate for the losses felt so far. Growth for the full year is projected to be negative in all regions, except for Africa.
“Though much uncertainty persists, there are signs indicating that the turning point may also have been reached in the tourism sector,” the UNWTO said.
“Data for July show a relative improvement and for countries that already reported data for August, these two high season months have not in general been as depressed as the first six months of the year. Other industry indicators from air transport and accommodation sectors corroborate this upward trend.”
UNWTO Secretary-General a.i. Taleb Rifai said: “As the latest economic data and prospects indicate that the world economy may be starting to emerge from its most severe recession of the post second world war period, in tourism too there are signs that confidence is returning and that demand is improving for both business and leisure travel.”
UNWTO Secretary-General a.i. Taleb Rifai said: “As the latest economic data and prospects indicate that the world economy may be starting to emerge from its most severe recession of the post second world war period, in tourism too there are signs that confidence is returning and that demand is improving for both business and leisure travel.”
He added: “Long- term prospects remain positive if the sector is able to address its challenges in a coordinated and effective manner.
“Today, world leaders are working together in ways that would have been unimaginable at any time in the past, to co-ordinate and collaborate on economy, climate response and the development agenda.
“The tourism sector should do the same on the road to recovery and towards a more sustainable industry.”
With the exception of Africa, all regions recorded a drop in arrivals for the first seven months of 2009:
*Europe (-8%) is still enduring the impact of recession in the majority of its source markets but the encouraging improvement in data for the peak month of July (-4% as compared to -11% in May and -7% in June) shows that demand might be picking up in the world’s most visited region.
*Europe (-8%) is still enduring the impact of recession in the majority of its source markets but the encouraging improvement in data for the peak month of July (-4% as compared to -11% in May and -7% in June) shows that demand might be picking up in the world’s most visited region.
*Results have also improved in Asia and the Pacific (-6%) where some destinations such as the Republic of Korea or Malaysia, are bucking the overall negative trend with significant increases. It is even very likely that Asia has returned to positive growth in August, as many destinations already reported data for this month showing significant improvement.
*In the Americas (-7%) though there was also a lower decline rate in July this has not been as significant as in Europe due to the fact that some destinations have been impacted by the influenza A(H1N1) outbreak.
*Although the decline in the Middle East is significant (-13%), this is the only region, apart from Africa, which has posted positive results in June and July this year. Arrivals are still well above the 2007 level as the current decline follows two very strong growth years. Also in the Middle East various destinations bucked the overall trend and report noteworthy growth rates, i.e. Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon or Syria.
*The positive results in Africa (+4%) reflect the strength of North African destinations around the Mediterranean and the positive results of destinations such as Kenya, South Africa or Swaziland.
by Phil Davies
Phil Davies
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