Guest Comment: Prospects gloomy for domestic tourism

Ken Male, destination management consultant, says the outlook for domestic tourism is glum in 2004, particularly for agents who are selling it. I have been trying to bring together a variety of opinions on the tourism industry forecasts for 2004. The Tourism Society has canvassed its members to get some opinions and Visit Britain has just published their view of growth. Generally, the views are that there will be minimal growth in the coming year. Overall, Tourism Society members think that there will be an increase in both hotel occupancy and revenues although over one third thought they would stay the same or fall. Over 60% of respondents thought that, at best, 4+night holidays would stay the same or decrease although the outlook for 1-3 night breaks was more positive. Visit Britain is forecasting a growth in the value of domestic tourism but a fall in volume (nights away) for the out turn for 2003 with minimal growth forecast for 2004. After the great summer last year we would normally expect a good year to follow and so the degree of pessimism is surprisingly high! Although ABTA anticipate a growth in domestic holidays based on a strong Euro making overseas holidays more expensive, over 90% of the Tourism Society’s members were of the opinion that the use of High Street retail agents would stay the same or fall. Over 85% of Tourism Society members thought that bookings via the Internet for both domestic and overseas holidays, and for business travel, would increase. The operators of self catering holidays are more bullish about the prospects for 2004 following better results for 2003 and the low cost airlines are similarly confident. Is there a moral there about affordability? Similarly, coach operators are optimistic about growth, partly fuelled by the changing demographic profile, meaning there will be more people in the 55+ age range. In the attractions sector the Tourism Society members mostly thought that they would continue to remain static. I think they are still suffering from the over-capacity caused by some of the Government/Lottery funding which distorted this sector by growing the number of attractions without actually growing the overall number of visitors to them. The outcome of marketing campaigns by both London and the England would indicate a positive impact on the final quarter for 2003 from the domestic holidaymaker. So what can you draw from all of this? My suggestion is that there are not too many looking at substantial growth in 2004 and so aim your marketing activities at stealing business from your competitors rather than from a dramatic increase in total customer numbers!