Here’s an early glimpse of next year’s travel trends

The year is running out and already travel predictors are looking at 2012. What can you expect from travel in the various markets including hotels, luxury and market segments? And what’s the outlook on meetings?

Overall, the latest TravelClick’s report finds business, leisure and group business travel all showing moderate demand improvement with gains expected to escalate through the third quarter of next year.

"Throughout 2011, business travel has been the primary driver for hotel demand and that trend continues in 2012," said Tim Hart, executive vice president, business intelligence, TravelClick.

The US hotel industry will see less growth in 2012 than previously predicted but at least one of the reasons is good news: a stellar 2011. The other reason is “continuing economic headwinds,” says STR.

The industry-wide occupancy rate now is expected to average 60 percent next year, an increase of 0.2 percent, says the travel consulting and research firm. It previously forecast a 2 percent increase.

Average room rates now are forecast to rise by 3.7 percent, to US$105.29, in 2012, STR said. It previously predicted a 4.9 percent gain.

STR said it lowered its 2012 expectations because of continued economic uncertainty and the industry’s better-than-expected 2011 performance.

“Our revised forecast reflects an industry posting record levels of demand, operating in an environment where the economic fundamentals cannot be ignored,” said Amanda Hite, STR’s president.

Luxury travel looks strong next year, says Travoca.

Reservations are more than 50 percent ahead of the same time last year, “a clear indicator that the luxury travel segment is rebounding as consumer confidence continues to increase,” the site says.

“Even with an average selling price of $10,000 per person, we are experiencing growth and expect bookings to continue to accelerate as the economy improves and people return to traveling more frequently,” said Jerre Fuqua, president.
 

Asia, including India, is Travcoa’s most popular region for travel in 2012, making up almost 40 percent of the reservations since June 1, 2011.

Popular itineraries to the continent include Enlightened India, Intriguing Indochina, and Legendary China, all of which showcase culture, unique history, and distinguishing architecture.
 

Europe is also showing robust results, contributing to 25 percent of Travcoa’s reservations since June 1, 2011. Itineraries of interest include Along the Dalmatian Coast, an in-depth look at Croatia, Montenegro, and Slovenia; Undiscovered Italy, an itinerary filled with little-known Italian villages and an abundance of food and wine; and Resplendent Russia, an exploration in the style of the czars.
 

However, the Middle East, which is traditionally Travcoa’s most popular region, makes up just 5 percent of future bookings.

“This signals that consumer confidence in this region is still low following last spring’s political instability,” the company says.

The majority of global event suppliers are predicting an increase in meetings activity in 2012, but only 7 percent are anticipating a growth in budgets, according to research conducted by American Express Meetings & Events.

AmEx said that 60 percent of global suppliers had seen an increase in planned and booked meetings for 2012.
 

The research revealed that the majority (60 percent) of suppliers are forecasting budgets will remain static in 2012, with 33 percent anticipating an increase. 40 percent are expecting a decrease in the number of attendees at meetings, with only 20 percent expecting growth.

"There is a lot of uncertainty in the financial environment, but we are still seeing this increase. Companies need to continue to meet because there is value in [doing so]." Said Michael Schuller, vp.

By David Wilkening

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