The International Air Transport Association (IATA) remains highly pessimistic about a speedy recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
In an update on the state of the industry, IATA cut their coronavirus recovery forecast, and now says it will likely be 2024 before passenger traffic returns to pre-pandemic levels.
That is a year longer than previously forecasted.
It cites slow progress to contain the virus in the United States and major uncertainty over the future of corporate travel.
It also said 2020 passenger traffic will decline by about 55%.
"The second half of this year will see a slower recovery than we’d hoped," IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce said.
Business travel will possibly never fully recover.
"It will remain to be seen whether we see a recovery to pre-crisis business travel patterns. Our concern is that we won’t," Pearce said.
IATA also points to relatively weak consumer confidence for leisure travel due to job security concerns and rising unemployment, as well as a general anxiety about travel.
"What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying. International markets remain largely closed. Consumer confidence is depressed and not helped by the UK’s weekend decision to impose a blanket quarantine on all travelers returning from Spain. All of this point to a longer recovery period," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
by Ray Montgomery, US editor
