Israel and Lebanon are “no go” for tourism

TravelMole Guest Comment by Parita Chitakasem, Euromonitor International

The conflict has completely overturned the travel and tourism industries in Israel and Lebanon, giving rise to turmoil and uncertainty.

In the mid to long term, Euromonitor International forecasts that Israel will fare better, but for the short term, both will see the number of arrivals plunge.

The first five days of conflict drained a substantial $1.5 billion out of Lebanon’s economy, a significant proportion of which is tourism-related.

Likewise, the Israeli tourism industry faces falling revenues, safety issues for tourists and the potential long-term impact of the conflict on its status as an international tourist destination.

Before the attacks, Israel’s tourism industry was on track for a full recovery from the slump which followed the Intifada attacks in 2000, with arrivals up 35% to 2 million over 2004/2005. The outlook for inbound arrivals was even projected to surpass an all-time high of 2.4 million in 2006.

Lebanon tourism was also enjoying its best-ever performance, having steadily picked up since the end of its civil war in 1992. According to Euromonitor International, the country expected some 500,000 visitors for leisure purposes between July and Sept 2006 alone, with 1.5 million tourists in total previously projected for 2006. Beirut had developed into a strong destination and Ashrafieh – a major tourist hub now ravaged – catered for visitors from countries such as Jordan, Iran, France and the US.

If the Hezbollah missile attacks continue, key tourist spots in Israel such as Haifa, Safed, Nahariya, Upper Nazareth, Afula and Carmiel could see visitor numbers drop by as much as 70%. However, as the attacks have so far been concentrated in the North, tourism elsewhere in the country may remain unscathed if domestic tourists show resilience to the unfolding conflict, preventing an otherwise more serious downturn country-wide.

The case is different in Lebanon – if the conflict is sustained, the country’s tourism industry is likely to collapse. International communities will advise strongly against traveling to Lebanon, consequently halving the number of visitors.

In addition, tourists from key source markets will choose alternative Middle East destinations, notably Bahrain and UAE, depriving Lebanon of much needed tourism receipts. Only “no-go tourists” seeking extreme, life-threatening thrills or loyal nationals are likely to risk a trip.

International intervention could provoke a cease-fire which would encourage recovery, particularly in Israel. In this scenario, Euromonitor International predicts a full recovery could be possible by 2008-2009 in Israel thanks to its robust infrastructure and strong religious tourism sector. However, Lebanon is unlikely to recuperate its losses quickly.

The tourism industry will be left with a deeper scar, not least from the damage inflicted by the bombing of its main airport, clearly a symbol of international travel for any country.