Just 90 days to save the summer…

Early high season arrivals from North America to the UK and the rest of Europe are about to disappear unless governments are able to come up with a Covid recovery plan.

That was the stark message from ETOA, which is holding a North American Marketplace webinar on Wednesday.

In jeopardy is around $70 billion of spending from US and Canadian clients, whose trips are likely to be cancelled within the next three months without a clear plan of when European countries will reopen their borders.

Currently anyone who arrives in the UK from overseas must quarantine for up to 10 days, and from 15 February arrivals from high-risk countries will have to pay £1,750 to spend 10 days in a quarantine hotel.

The UK Government has given no indication of how long the quarantine measures will last, or what will replace them as the lockdown eases.

In the US and Canada, clients need to cancel within 90 days, so many will already be looking at ditching plans to come to the UK this summer without any certainty they’ll have quarantine-free access.

Brett Walker, Chairman of the Canadian Tour Operators Association said: "While appreciating the uncertainty of this pandemic, there must be an immediate, coordinated, and fully transparent tourism recovery plan, highlighting clear and concise safety measures and protocols to support the critical need for both a health and economic recovery.

"The next 90 days will likely determine if there will be any safe and meaningful return of North America travellers to Europe this summer. The greater and the longer the uncertainty, the more likely Europe will see the same decline of North American spending, between 90-95%, for 2021 as was the case in 2020."

North America is by far the most important origin market for Europe, delivering approximately $70 billion of spending every year. In 2020, Europe saw a 90-95% decline in this business, in what was the biggest collapse in volume since records began, said ETOA.

Much of this business was transferred into 2021, with the bulk of it planning to arrive from May to October. "The continued uncertainty as to when they may be able to travel is placing this in jeopardy. US and Canadian clients need to cancel with 90 days’ notice, so early high season arrivals in Europe are about to disappear," it said.

Terry Dale, CEO of the United States Tour Operators Association, said: "Fourteen of the top 20 international destinations visited by our members are European, so it’s imperative to recognise that the recovery of the travel industry is central to the overall health of the global economy.

"USTOA strongly encourages swift collaboration between governments to develop reciprocal plans to reopen borders. Communication of those plans – based on virus rates, vaccination rates, and health protocols – will boost consumer confidence and encourage travel spending that will impact tens of thousands of jobs in the US and abroad."

Tom Jenkins, CEO of ETOA, added: "What potential visitors need is a clear indication of when border restrictions are likely to be lifted, and under what conditions. This is business which our members have on their books. The clients who wanted to travel to Europe still want to do so. The risks they pose, which are already very low as compared with the general population in destination are diminishing by the day. Yet no indication is being given if Europe wants them to return this year."

Mr Jenkins said that as Europe is viewed as a single destination by long-haul visitors there must be a co-ordinated response from the Schengen area to define what it takes for business to resume.

"Billions of dollars are at risk, and not just this year: Europe being seen as ‘too difficult’ is a marketing boost for alternative destinations. But this is more than money: it is the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of people that stand in jeopardy."