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‘Long term decline’ in domestic tourism forecast
Spending on domestic tourism is likely to fall by more than £1 billion over four years, a new report warns.
Research company Key Note’s latest Travel & Tourism Market Review forecasts that expenditure on domestic travel and tourism will drop by around five per cent this year to £19.91 billion.
Key Note predicts that expenditure on domestic tourism will have fallen further to around £18.63 billion by 2011 – the year before the Olympic Games is held in London.
The number of trips in 2007 is expected to be down by 6.2% and the number of beds nights are projected to fall by 6.5%. At the same time, only “modest” growth in the number of inbound visits to the UK is expected, according to the research.
The report attributed the slump this year to the prolonged spell of wet weather during the summer on the back of a disappointing year in 2006 which saw spending down significantly on the previous 12 months.
UK tourism also faces the ongoing appeal of holidaying abroad through low cost flights, the high value of sterling again the dollar and euro, and the increasing range of holidays and destination available. All these attractions of holidaying overseas will work again the domestic tourism market, Key Note said.
In the year to March 2006, 45.3% of adults took holiday abroad, compared with 45% the previous year. In the same period 38.1% took holidays in the UK, down from 39.8%.
Overseas travel in 2007 is forecast to remain “relatively static” compared with 2006, although the wet summer in the UK is expected to have boosted foreign holiday taking.
“The domestic tourism market has been contracting for some years and this long-term decline may well continue for several years,” the report said.
*The report is available for £715 from Key Note on www.keynote.co.uk
by Phil Davies
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