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Longer term travel outlook ‘still bright’
Monday, 11 Nov, 2009
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Travel and tourism still remains a key engine of growth despite 2009 seeing the worst recession since the 1930s, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council.
But a second dip into recession early next year cannot yet be ruled out, a report for the organisation cautions.
This is despite tentative signs that the economic cycle is now turning, driven by unprecedented policy stimuli, reviving credit markets and recovering asset prices.
WTC president and CEO Jean-Claude Baumgarten said: "As a result, travel & tourism economy GDP is now forecast to decline by 5.5% in 2009.
"This means that ravel & tourism’s contribution to global GDP will fall this year to less than 9.3% from 9.6% in 2008, which is also down from the 9.4% predicted at the start of 2009.
"Moreover, activity in 2010 is likely to be flat at best."
He was announcing the WTTC’s latest forecasts at World Travel Market with Adrian Cooper, managing director of research partner Oxford Economics.
Updated forecasts from WTTC and Oxford Economics show that there has been no change in the projected long-term trend growth of 4% per annum forecast for travel and tourism over the coming decade, making it a key engine of expansion in the longer term.
"In the aftermath of the financial stress exacerbated by the collapse of Lehman Brothers last summer, the global economy contracted at its steepest rate in post-war history," said Cooper.
"However, recent indicators suggest that the global economy has passed its trough and some forecasts for 2010 are now being upwardly revised.
"Key recovery drivers are unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli, reviving credit markets and recovering asset prices.
"But there are good reasons for caution and a second dip into recession early in 2010 – a double dip – cannot yet be ruled out.
“An extended period of balance-sheet rebuilding by households, firms and governments also means that any recovery is likely to be gradual."
Travel and tourism economy GDP growth in 2008 slowed to 1%, WTTC announced, as significant momentum was lost in the second half of the year, and the deterioration intensified early in 2009, resulting in:
· International air passenger traffic contracting by 6% year on year in the first eight months of 2009;
· Monthly data for 68 countries covering 80% of global tourist trips showing overnight visitor arrivals on a similar path (January to September growth is estimated at 6% year on year); and
· Widespread losses across all regions, although currency effects and domestic tourism have provided some support.
Nevertheless, there are tentative recovery signs for travel and tourism with the most recent data indicating that the worst has been passed.
Given the deeper-than-expected global recession and tourism indicators for the year so far, the contraction in travel and tourism activity is now expected to be larger than had been hoped in January.
Corporate travel cuts, household curtailment of leisure travel (especially international trips) and the postponement of investment plans for tourism infrastructure have all been worse than expected.
"Travel and tourism clearly continues to face challenging times, especially if the tentative recovery underway loses momentum or the A(H1N1) influenza pandemic intensifies,” said Baumgarten.
In the face of such difficult circumstances, the travel industry requires the global policy environment to be supportive, Baumgarten stressed.
Policy-makers therefore need to be wary about placing extra burdens on this previously dynamic sector at this crucial time when profitability is already under severe pressure.
"If the challenging times travel and tourism now faces are ignored then its role in employment creation and poverty reduction could be seriously undermined," he warned.
by Phil Davies
Phil Davies
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