Mabrian: US policy upends inbound travel demand

US administration policies are starting to show signs of impacting inbound travel, although it varies widely across different regions.

Travel intelligence platform Mabrian crunched the numbers from the Share of Flights Searches Index for the United States.

Data reveals shifting global travel interest to the United States for 2025, with significant variations.

It analyzed millions of flight searches made between January and March 2025 from ten key source markets (UK, Germany, France, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, India, Japan, South Korea, and China) for travel through September 2025.

The Index reveals significant variations in key markets across Europe, the Americas, and Asia: while some regions demonstrate more resilience.

This travel intent pattern is also consistent with confirmed flights bookings, via GDS, taking place between February and March 2025.

It showed European Union countries, the UK, and key markets like Germany, France, and Italy reflect that travel interest to the U.S. is diminishing,.

Overall European travel intent to the U.S. is slightly down.

It is also slightly down in the UK but rallied in March 2025, suggesting growing confidence among British travelers.

Germany and Italy each recorded declines nearing -1 percentage point compared to 2024, indicating growing uncertainty

“This data underlines the sensitivity of European markets to geopolitical developments”, said Carlos Cendra, Partner and Marketing and Communications Director at Mabrian.

“Sudden policy shifts or added difficulties to visit the country project a less-friendly image of the United States as a destination”.

The research identifies three distinct regional scenarios for travel intent from the Americas and Asia.

Japan and Brazil show a declining trend in demand.

Bookings from Brazil to the U.S. between February and March 2025 declined -15% compared to last year.

“Data on the weekly evolution of inspirational demand to the U.S. for the next six months reflects the weakened consumer confidence from travellers in these top source markets”, Cendra. added

“This is creating two key effects: shorter planning and booking cycles, favoring last-minute reservations; and a wait-and-see approach.”

In the Canadian market, there is still apparent demand based on search volume but this is not currently converting to bookings.

Gross passengers booked is about 15% down for February and March.

For China and South Korea, search and booking data is up so far this year.

Mabrian and The Data Appeal Company will continue to monitor global trends as the summer season nears, particularly the impact of the latest policy measures and geopolitical developments

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