Operators must ‘hold their nerve’ for 2004 bookings

ABTA Convention Special: Forward bookings for holidays next Summer are down 30% compared to this time last year because of an absence of discounts and special offers.

According to market research company, AC Nielsen, the combination of a lack of discounted offers for Summer 2004, and people booking last minute for 2003, means people in the UK aren´t booking their Summer 2004 holidays yet.

AC Nielsen director, holiday services, Terry McCarthy said: “Last year´s ‘give away offers’ are not out there in the market place. The subsequent Gulf crisis meant Summer 2003 has been a very late booking market anyway despite these early booking season low prices – with the normal peak season booking months of this year nearly dried up completely.

“Hence I would suggest the situation has been further exaggerated by customers unwilling and/or unable to book both years at the same time.”

Speaking at the ABTA Convention press conference on Thursday, Co-op Travel Trading Group´s Mike Greenacre said: “The gloom and doom predictions of 20% or 30% bookings down for next year are distorted because of the heavy discounts last year, like GBP99 holidays with the likes of MyTravel.”

AC Nielsen samples 4,000 agency distribution points, including retail shops, digital travel channels and websites. It says 90% of package holiday and accommodation-only bookings still come through agency channels in the UK.

Mr McCarthy added: “If operators hold their nerve, the recovery in bookings one might expect in early 2004, would come with the benefit of good price increases for both themselves and the infrastructure of the destination countries.”

Meanwhile, agency bookings in Summer 2003 were broadly similar to last year, which means bookings were still around 7% down on Summer 2001.

According to the survey there was a higer number of cancellations in 2003, due to consmer concern before and during the war in Iraq. This brought actual traveller trends down by around 2% and impacted destinations like Turkey in particular. According to AC Nielsen longhaul travel, particularly to the US, recovered as expected in 2003.

The research company says Winter bookings for 2003/2004 have been hit by “the mainly political turmoil of the last two years”. In a statement the company said the results indicated that, “…holidaymakers are much more prepared to give up their Winter (second holiday?[sic]) break, than the main one in the Summer.”

A capacity drop of 20% year-on-year in Winter volumes means the potential for recovery in Winter bookings is greater, according to AC Nielsen. Hence, Winter bookings were up 4% in September and the first three weeks of October have shown a 7% increase year-on-year. According to AC Nielsen, while the ski market and longhaul market are performing strongly, shorthaul destinations like Spain are down on bookings for this Winter.

According to AC Nielsen, Winter prices have “rocketed” – Spain is up 7% and the total market up 12%, due to more expensive ski and longhaul holidays.