Disruption caused by the Kilauea Volcano eruption and lava flows will cost the Big Island tourism industry at least $200 million in lost revenues.
That’s the conclusion from a study conducted by the department of geography and environmental science at the University of Hawaii at Hilo.
The disruption has already cost an estimated $50 million in tourism spending and about 38,000 potential visitors, says study author Mark Kimura.
Kimura said the fall in seasonally adjusted visitors is about 12%, which is significantly higher than data published by the Hawaii Tourism Authority for May and June.
Kimura is basing his projections on historical data from the eruption of Hurricane Iniki, which was the most similar natural disaster.
Based on the post-Iniki recovery it could take nearly five months for visitation to get back to normal levels.
However Kimura admits his estimation may need refining.
"We know there will be a significant cost — $200 million just gives us some rough idea. The total is still hard to tell since we only have two months of actual data from when it started."
"We have seen no significant improvement in bookings for 2018 and 2019 travel since the May 3 volcano eruption. Island of Hawaii bookings are down year over year," said Jack Richards, president and CEO of Pleasant Holidays.
Big Island hotel occupancy fell by 6% in June, according to hospitality industry data analysts STR.
