Travel leaders discuss uncertain outlook for US outbound travel

During the summer of 2023 there were signs of a surge of international travel bookings by US consumers, in part helped by a continued strong dollar. 

Although that meant US domestic travel demand was waning, the industry was generally excited that 2023 international travel volume could finally catch up on that of 2019.

However, by later this year Reuters reported that international demand from the US may have softened due to economic uncertainty.

Still, US airlines were still reporting a continued demand for international travel.

Who is right?  How should travel intermediaries and B2B sellers plan for these seemingly contradictory market forecasts?

Travel leaders have been weighing in on the uncertainty. 

A recent Traveler Sentiment survey by Arival indicated a drop in the number of trips US travelers are planning to take in 2024.

Douglas Quinby, Co-founder and CEO of Arival, doesn’t think this is a significant concern. “US travelers are definitely back, and they want more out that travel – especially experiences.”

Many US travelers are just being cautious.  But the U.S. economy, employment and the dollar have remained resilient, the demand for international travel is there.”

It could lead to a change in strategy for hotels looking for US travelers, says hotel revenue management expert BEONx: “The fact that US citizens and Europeans alike are taking fewer trips, but spending longer away and spending more money is an opportunity for the industry,” said Alex Barros, Chief Marketing & Innovation Officer.

One important factor driving US international demand has been the strength of the dollar to other currencies. Janis Dzenis of US focused travel comparison website WayAway, said: “It has steadily been at broadly historic highs all year and remains so now. As long as this continues we´ll see US travelers wanting to take trips to Europe.”

 Arguably, the biggest opportunity is on the roughly 60 million US resident Spanish speakers says Civitatis. Chief Operating Officer Enrique Espinel says: “The experience of Spanish-speaking US citizens is that there aren’t too many Spanish language tourism services being offered to them.”

“If you can tap into that, both marketing to them in Spanish but also offering them the actual service in their language too, then you´ll likely find higher uptake.”

Regardless of the direction US outbound travel is moving in, travel tech event organiser and research company Phocuswright thinks that travel is going through a huge period of change, so peaks and troughs should be expected.

“Travel once again sits on the cusp of unprecedented change and is always going to be highly reactive to geopolitical and economic situations,” said Eugene Ko, Director, Marketing & Communications at Phocuswright.

This is echoed by Gareth Matthews, CMO at global travel distribution provider Didatravel,. “Consumer travel patterns change so frequently that travel companies need to continuously adapt their strategies, be diversified geographically, and be thoughtful in how they forecast supply, demand and pricing.”

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