Virgin accuses health body of using ‘flawed’ data to reject airport testing

Virgin Atlantic has accused the government of using flawed data to support its argument that airport Covid testing would only pick up a fraction of positive cases.

The airline’s Chief Executive, Shai Weiss, said independent analysis – commissioned by the aviation industry – showed on-arrival testing would pick up between 33% and 63% of cases.

The government has long rejected airport testing after insisting only 7% of positive cases would be detected.

Virgin said the new findings followed independent analysis by consultancies Edge Health and Oxera and Dr Kit Yates from the University of Bath.

The study, commissioned by a number of stakeholders including Virgin, TUI, Heathrow Airport, Manchester Airports Group, IAG and IATA, suggested the UK Government is ‘significantly underestimating effectiveness of air passenger testing schemes by continuing to rely on a Public Health England (PHE) paper’.

George Batchelor, Co-founder and Director of Edge Health, said: "The way in which the PHE model is set up means that only a tiny proportion of infected passengers – those who become symptomatic or are asymptomatic but detectable by a PCR test during the flight – can be detected at arrival.

"This means the widely quoted 7% excludes anyone who is in theory detectable or symptomatic before the flight takes off. This evidently isn’t the case, and it leads to an underestimation of the effectiveness of testing on arrival (the 7% figure), raising serious questions about its role in informing government policy on passenger testing."

It says the PHE data only counts those who become symptomatic or detectable while on the flight itself, but does not take account of potential travellers who, in theory, are detectable or symptomatic before the flight takes off. 

These travellers, the argue, would be detected by on-arrival testing and need to be taken into account in considering the effectiveness of a testing regime.

Weiss said: "Based on a Public Health England paper published back in June, UK Government has insisted that testing on arrival at an airport would identify only ‘7%’ of Covid-19 cases.

"Today’s new and independent analysis identifies flawed and outdated assumptions in that modelling, and reveals that testing will capture a vast majority of cases rather than the purported 7%, which makes it the right solution.

"We urgently need the introduction of a passenger testing regime here in the UK to safely replace quarantine and support the UK’s economic recovery, which relies on free flowing trade and tourism."

Weiss urged the government’s newly formed Global Travel Taskforce to study the new evidence and take action in order to save jobs.

"Half a million UK jobs depend on a fully functioning aviation industry, therefore it’s vital that policy decisions are based on the latest possible evidence," he said.

"The Government’s Global Travel Taskforce should consider this new analysis closely and act on findings to swiftly implement a testing regime which opens up the skies safely and removes 14-day quarantine.

"The industry has already shown it can deliver passenger-funded, rapid, on site tests that do not divert vital NHS resources. We are ready to work together, but time is of the essence."

The government has insisted data from the PHE research has been backed up by other studies.