What will 2015 bring for the travel industry?

Andy Harmer, CLIA director

"Next year will be the one where social media really becomes a vital tool for the retail travel trade. Social media isn’t a new area, of course, but in my view the travel trade hasn’t fully embraced it … until now. Over the past 12 months, the number of our partner agents engaging with us and with their cruise passenger clients via social media channels has rocketed and I believe we will see it used much more widely and routinely in the year ahead.

Social media allows travel agents to demonstrate their expertise and knowledge to clients through the smart use of good visual content – a vital ingredient in the sale of such an experiential product as a cruise holiday. And so 2015 will be the year in which agents use social media to expand their virtual catchment area; to embrace a new and wider community that has a specific interest in the products being sold, and to make social media a really important ingredient in their overall marketing mix. And social media will also provide a new means of engagement between agents and the cruise industry too – a means of sharing information, ideas and creativity. 2015 promises to be an exciting year!"

Stewart Harvey, group commercial director for HRG

"2015 is going to be about clients demanding more from their commercial agreements with TMCs and improving their travel risk management procedures. The macro economic situation remains unchanged on the whole and clients are seeking to extract more from their spend without reducing the quality of their service. Meanwhile, geo-political instability and weather related incidents are becoming more frequent; both represent greater risk to travellers. Clients have a legal requirement to ensure the safety and well being of their workforce. Improving travel risk management programmes is a growing requirement that we expect to see continue into 2015."

Noel Josephides, ABTA chairman

"The only certainty about 2015 is the uncertainty we are all facing. Predictions can be wide of the mark as world affairs unravel and economies dip in and out of recession. Currently, the oil price is low, which bodes well for our sector, but any settlement over Ukraine could easily create a spike in price.

Assuming we are facing a year when the world settles down, then we are looking at TUI targeting long-haul destinations with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner coupled with cheaper fuel prices. None of the mass-market operators has managed to make destinations like Costa Rica work in the past – they have tried several times – and it will be extremely interesting to see if the Dreamliner does the trick for them.

Sterling looks to remain strong against the Euro though not so good against the Dollar. Holidays to EU destinations will be good value in 2015 and Egypt should begin to make a come-back.

The public will begin to realise that bookings via villa and flat sharing services – or large booking engines – are no guarantee of a trouble-free holiday. These businesses have a long way to go before they can hope to match the personalisation and security afforded by legacy tour operators and travel agents."

Gavin Bate, Adventure Alternative

"Don’t hold your breath for a massive change in tourism trends for 2015; people may have a bit more money in their back pocket for Christmas but I don’t think they will be throwing caution to the wind when it comes to booking holidays quite yet. The wind is beginning to blow in the right direction but it will take time for people to gain confidence in the economy.

However, the battleground for discerning clientele in tourism will still be fought on issues of quality, authentic experiences and personal service. A strong ethical brand says as much about quality as ever before, and with so much bad press around bad practice and irresponsibility in business, I think the consumer will be searching for holiday companies that do business ‘for good’.

Meanwhile, the breadcrumbs thrown to the industry by George Osborne in the recent budget have to compete with blatant fear of travel in the light of cataclysmic events like the ebola outbreak. We all hope that Santa delivers just a bit of peace and quiet in the coming year so we can all just get on with our businesses."

Barbara Kolosinska, sales director at C&M Travel Recruitment and Chisholm & Moore Executive Recruitment

"With 2015 being an election year and with the public still mindful about the economy, we have to be aware that this could continue to have an impact on the amount that people are willing to spend. Of course, travel is one of the industries likely to be hit hardest by any tightening of wallets, with the business travel sector possibly seeing the biggest impact. However at C&M, we remain very optimistic about the prospects for next year. We are ending 2014 on a real high with more new travel vacancies than at any point since 2008, so we are forecasting a very positive start to 2015 for the industry, with many companies expected to create new jobs.

We’ve also seen a shift in the types of roles that travel companies are recruiting for, with a definite move towards digital and online marketing positions. More people than ever are now using their tablets or mobiles to search for travel options and we see no reason why 2015 should buck this trend. This has meant that sales and digital marketing positions are now far more prevalent throughout the industry with many traditional online travel agents and tour operators placing an increased emphasis on how their business can tap into this growing market."

Cathal O’Connell, CEO bmi regional

"Nothwithstanding some uncertainty with the election, the strength of sterling and the reduction in the price of oil will mean that travel will be even more affordable for Brits travelling to Europe.

In terms of developments in technology and travel, we are used to using mobile phones for check-in, monitoring flights and searching for the best deal, but mobile will go ever more mainstream. We’ll see phones being used to skip the check-in queues at hotels and attractions, and being used to make payments instead of plastic

Meanwhile, the likes of Uber, Airbnb and other so-called sharing economy firms will increase exponentially in travel as they build their technology to enable them to access the distribution that the incumbents such as airlines have already.

Airlines will continue to really differentiate their offerings, and move away from the ‘commodity trap’ of just selling price and destination, which means travellers start becoming much more discerning in their choice of carrier.

And, finally, 2015 will be the year when one of the election promises by a political party will be a halving in all the taxes that the UK tourism industry pays owning to its contribution to jobs and the UK economy in general. OK, that last one is a bit optimistic!"

Chris Wright, managing director of Sunvil Holidays and GIC The Villa Collection

"For operators who commit to charter flying, 2014 was a struggle. Following a buoyant 2013, a large number of extra flights were programmed and there was huge over capacity in the market. That, coupled with lower overall demand from April onwards, meant the market was awash with seats. The problem was compounded because at times when demand was there, limited accommodation was available due to high demand from the Russian market.

The recent changes at Monarch, with the highly publicised switch away from charter and the large reduction in overall fleet size, has meant that operators who have historically taken capacity from Monarch have turned to other carriers/ tour operators to buy seats. Overall this seems to have tightened capacity on routes that suffered in 2014.

The financial crisis in Russia should also mean that the demand for accommodation drops, making more available for the UK market.
The drop in fuel prices is unlikely to have an impact on prices for 2015 as fuel was hedged earlier in the summer, when prices were high.
The outlook looks good, with forward bookings currently ahead of last year. However, as we have seen in recent years, strong forward bookings are no longer a guarantee of a good year ahead."

Pru Goudie, general manager On The Go Tours

"The good news for 2015 is that Egypt is back on the map! After a difficult two years, Egypt is very much on the up again and the FCO is relaxing its travel advice as from January 2015. It is a huge relief to us and to other Egypt specialists – and, just as importantly, a welcome relief for the local Egyptians, all of whom have suffered tremendously over the last two years. The Egyptian State Tourist Office (ESTO) has been extremely supportive to cultural operators to Egypt and the public will, in the New Year, see a lot of new Egypt campaigns launched by individual Egypt specialists.

We now need as much support for Egypt as possible from the UK media to help regain the confidence of the British traveller. We are in the process of organising some Egypt agent fam trips in 2015. Enquiries for Egypt are increasing on a weekly basis so we are confident that 2015 will be the beginning of the travellers’ return."

Peter Shanks, development director Imagine Cruising

"2015 should be a terrific year for everybody involved in cruising. Let’s start with some facts to back that up. Having only grown by 1% in 2013 and 2% in 2014 – the UK cruise market is set to grow by 6% in 2015 – adding over 100k passengers to nearly 1.9m cruisers. Cruise lines will see a profit windfall from the dramatic reduction in the price of oil – an opportunity for them to invest further in their product and on board experience. Finally – Cruise lines are reporting strong early sales for 2015- so all the basics for growth and firmer prices seem to be in place.

Prices should be higher, commission earnings will reflect that, the media will hype the new ship launches as well as Cunard Line’s magnificent 175th Anniversary and there are over 100,000 extra cruise passengers up for grabs.

2015 should be a year where cruising grows up – moves away from price-led marketing towards experience/value/innovation and talks to the incredible holiday destinations and experiences that customers can choose from. All in all – 2015 should be a terrific year for all of us in cruising – Imagine that…"

Andrew Swaffield, CEO The Monarch Group

"Significant market over-capacity in a sluggish travel market in the past 18 months has forced airlines and tour operators to lower fares to attract customers, leaving all to operate on wafer-thin margins. But could there now finally be hope on the horizon? We can certainly be buoyed by the dramatic reduction in the cost of fuel, inflation at a 12-year low and the highest number of people in work since records began in 1971.

So with the combination of low fares, a strong pound and the forthcoming abolishment of Airport Departure Tax (APD) for children under 12, we expect to see the return of the European holiday for many families, and an increase in the number of short breaks that are taken by young adults and couples. But as travel businesses we also have to help ourselves to drive demand. Our industry has traditionally been focused on product and price rather than the customers we serve. But even when prices are low, customers should still expect consistently good service delivered by people who care, and we’re now beginning to see certain business strategies forced to recognise this."

Ashley Toft, managing director Explore

"After a tough few years, the Family Adventures market is coming back strongly and this will be boosted in 2015 by the abolition of Air Passenger Duty for children. More families are taking a ‘trip of a lifetime’ once the teenagers have finished their GCSEs, and this is set to continue. This trend has helped increase passengers to exotic destinations such as Cambodia, Botswana and Nicaragua.
 
Cuba looks set for change with diplomatic relations between the US and Cuba unexpectedly starting to build in the last couple of weeks. Whilst it may take a while for Congress to agree to lift sanctions, there will be a surge of interest from people wanting to see the ‘real Cuba’ before that change happens. I think Cuba will have a record year. Cycling continues to grow, with group cycling tours to destinations such as Burma, Morocco and India expected to do especially well. Self-guided cycling is also really taking off and new tours in Austria, Croatia, Italy and Germany are predicted to trade strongly. The slow and steady recovery that we are seeing in Egypt will hopefully continue, and customers that travel while it is relatively quiet will have a fantastic experience."