Where now? Will airline emission controls be Trumped?

Hot on the heels of the most cynical emissions deal ever comes a president who wants to scrap the Paris Accord

The story so far: In 2008, the European Union set up a working emissions trading scheme – the EUETS, which was to apply to European airlines flights within Europe from the start of 2012. The EU legislation was set to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from airlines progressively and to allow airlines to trade their gains.

The scheme was then to incorporate all flights landing and taking off from European airports – at which stage all hell broke loose.

The Chinese protested, the airplane makers protested, both the US Senate and Congress took steps to ban American airlines from complying with the legislation. The scheme was dead in the water.

The ‘saving face’ deal that the EU arranged as a result of this hoohah was that a global scheme would be agreed by the ICAO covering all the world’s airlines in 2016. On that basis the EUETS scheme was put on hold.

Now, the ICAO has been consistently hammered by global green interests as providing airlines with tax advantages over more sustainable methods of travel, such as trains and buses.

In effect airlines buy their fuel and spare parts tax-free as a result of the 1944 Chicago Convention and ruthless airline lobbying since. It is reported that the airlines get a yearly hand-out of €60 billion per annum or a per passenger subsidy of about €95 for a return flight from Europe to USA.

And although there was hope that the ICAO may come up with a good global carbon deal in the interests of humanity, that hope was never big. After all, airlines have had a pretty rough ride in terms of consistent profitability.

Anyway, the best that the ICAO could do this year to replace the EUETS was to organize a voluntary deal with all its airlines which would then be made compulsory by 2027. So at least 11 years free of restrictions – maybe 18.

In a Coup de Grace (or a comic turn, depending on your point of view) they then heralded this non-deal as a ‘Historic Carbon Agreement’

Said Bill Hemmings from the green group T&E: "Airline claims that flying will now be green are a myth. Taking a plane is the fastest and cheapest way to fry the planet and this deal won’t reduce demand for jet fuel one drop."

To put it into context airline emissions are currently less than10% of global emissions (although they represent 80% of tourism related emissions).

However they are growing dramatically each and very year and they are projected to consume approximately a quarter of the world’s remaining carbon budget by 2050.

Clearly this won’t be acceptable to any European government, but what will Mr Trump feel about it? It is after all the Americans that are most opposed to carbon controls in any form and it could well be that and agreement could be kicked into the long grass again.

Valere  Tjolle

@ValereTjolle