World faces ‘perfect storm’ of problems by 2030

See the Age of Stupid premiere report at:
AGE OF STUPID

Food, water and energy shortages will unleash public unrest and international conflict, Professor John Beddington told a conference today.

In a major speech to environmental groups and politicians, Professor John Beddington, who took up the position of chief scientific adviser to the UK Government last year, said that the world is heading for major upheavals which are due to come to a head in 2030.

He told the government’s Sustainable Development UK conference in Westminster that the growing population and success in alleviating poverty in developing countries will trigger a surge in demand for food, water and energy over the next two decades, at a time when governments must also make major progress in combating climate change.

“We head into a perfect storm in 2030, because all of these things are operating on the same time frame,” Beddington told the UK’s Guardian.

This follows hard on the Copenhagen climate change summit. Messages issued by a writing team representing more than 1,600 scientists and other experts were stark. They say recent observations confirm that the “worst-case scenario trajectories” put forward by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) just two years ago are already being realised.

Global surface temperature, sea-level rise, ice sheet dynamics, ocean acidification and extreme weather events such as hurricanes and typhoons – “the climate system is already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived”.

There is also “a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts. Temperature rises above two degrees will be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and will increase the level of climate disruption through the rest of the century.”

According to the scientists, “rapid, sustained and effective” measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions “based on co-ordinated global and regional action” is now required to avoid dangerous climate change.

Said Forum for the Future:
“Climate change will be significant for travel and tourism regardless of the outcomes of Copenhagen. Whilst waiting for our global leaders to come up with a satisfactory shared approach we need to prepare ourselves for the inevitable low carbon future.

Low carbon holidays are a real opportunity for the industry. They will save money as carbon becomes more expensive and help customers reduce their own carbon footprints. The pioneers in the industry are already responding to the urgent challenge of climate change – Six Senses aim to be zero carbon by 2020, and the WTTC members have committeed to at least a 25% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020. Our report Paradise Found PARADISE FOUND
shows that there are lots of low carbon options already out there for the tourism industry – from sustainable construction of hotels and overland travel to alternative low carbon energy sources. We also need to act now to reduce the impact of our travelling, to go local and overland and find more efficient technologies for flying longer haul.

Carbon gives the industry a burning platform, but there is also mounting evidence that it makes sound business sense to act now despite the recession. According to management consultancy A T Kearney, the companies that are serious about sustainability are currently achieving above-average performance in the financial markets. Over the six-month period from May to November last year – exactly when the markets spiralled downwards – the companies with the sustainability credentials outperformed the market average by 15%. Factors such as eco-efficiency gains, strong compliance and governance regimes, sound risk management and green innovations are all contributing to the outperformance of the sustainability leaders. It it makes good business sense, helps with recession ready strategies and anticipates government action then it is surely worth doing."