Everyone in the prediction business sees higher airline fares this year, mainly due to greater demand and fewer seats. But how much more?
The numbers predicted are all across the board but one indicator should be how much oil prices go up.
An increase in oil prices in early 2011 helped push fares up 8.5 percent during the second quarter of last year, accoring to figures from the US Department of Transportaion.
Some experts say fares will only “inch up.” But they could go climb much faster, 10 to 20 percent, predicts others such as Anne Banas, executive editor of Smarter Travel.
Major reasons include more regulation and mergers that have cut back on competition that in the past kept fares down.
Carlson Wagonlit Travel forecasts airline pricing to increase from 3.5 to 4.1 percent in 2012 in North America.
“This is primarily due to rapidly increasing demand and limited supply in the region,” the site says.
American Express predicts prices in North America will increase up to five percent for economy and up to seven percent in business class.
These increases should stick even if some Americans opt to stay home amid fears of another recession, as airlines target travelers that are willing to pay more, the forecast said.
“Things look more bleak for Eruopean travel,” writes dealnews.com. A new “green tax” implemented by the European Union aimed at reducing emissions will levy a fee of aboaut $15 per passenger, each way, for flights to the US.
US fees on shorter fights within the EU will be taxed somewhat less.
By David Wilkening
