Boeing predicts recovery will be long and slow

SEATTLE – Boeing is the latest company to pick the bottom of the downturn.

Releasing a reasonably upbeat forecast for aviation, the US plane manufacturer said long-term annual air traffic growth in the Asia Pacific region is projected to be 6.9 percent over the next 20 years.

“Data indicates that the economic downturn has reached bottom and recovery has begun,” said Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of marketing, Randy Tinseth.

“Global recovery will be a long, slow process, and airlines will continue to adapt to the realities of the market,” he added.

Tinseth said Oceania air travel growth is expected to be above five percent, compared to a world average growth of 4.9 percent.

Sixty-seven percent of Oceania’s commercial airplane deliveries through 2028 will be for growth, Tinseth said. The remainder of airplane deliveries will replace older, less efficient airplanes.

Boeing forecasts that over the next 20 years, airlines in Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands will require 670 new airplanes valued at approximately US$90 billion.

Globally, airlines will need 29,000 new airplanes through 2028, valued at US$3.2 trillion.

“It is encouraging that 27 percent of our 20-year forecast already is on order,” Tinseth said. “Equally important is that this backlog is well balanced — by type of airplane, by airline business model, and region of the world.”