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Emerging economies lead global tourism rebound
Monday, 29 Apr, 2010
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Emerging countries are leading a return in tourist arrivals following more than a year of decline due to the global economic downturn.
International tourist arrivals are estimated to have increased by seven per cent in the first two months of 2010 to 119 million, according to the April Interim Update of the UNWTO World TourismBarometer.
While this was up on the same period in 2009 it was still two per cent below the record year of 2008.
The continuing rebound follows the upturn already registered in the last quarter of 2009 when arrivals grew by two per cent after 14 consecutive months of negative results.
The figures have enabled the UNWTO to forecast that international tourist arrivals will grow by three to four per cent this year.
International tourism receipts for 2009 are estimated at $852 billion worldwide (€ 611 billion), down from $942 billion (€ 641 billion) in the previous year.
In real terms (adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations and inflation) international tourism receipts dropped by six per cent against a four per cent decline in arrivals.
The outlook has not been altered by the recent air traffic disruption in European airspace due to the Icelandic volcanic ash cloud, the UNWTO claims.
The closure of a major part of European airspace between April 15-20 might have caused a loss of less than half a per cent of the yearly volume of international tourist arrivals in Europe and 0.3% of the total count for the world, the organisation believes.
But the UNWTO warns that many challenges remain.
Secretary-general Taleb Rifai said: “Although economic results have improved significantly in recent months with a positive impact on tourism demand we must remain cautious as many factors can still jeopardise the pace of recovery.
“The economic recovery is being driven mainly by emerging economies while growth is still sluggish in most advanced ones. At the same time, increasing unemployment levels in major tourism source markets is a cause of concern.”
Though information for March is still limited, countries with data already reported confirm that this positive trend is set to continue.
Growth was positive in all world regions during the first two months of the year led by Asia and the Pacific (+10%) and Africa (+7%).
Information for the three countries of the Middle East that have reported results so far also point to a strong rebound in the region.
The pace of growth was slower in Europe (+3%) and in the Americas (+3%), the two regions hardest hit by the global crisis and where economic recovery is proving to be comparatively weaker, the UNWTO said.
A large number of countries around the world reported positive results in the first months of 2010.
Of the 77 destinations reporting data for this period, 60 showed positive figures, of which 24 posted double-digit growth including Estonia, Israel, Hong Kong, Macao, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, Guam, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, US Virgin Islands, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Kenya, Seychelles, Morocco, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
But the UNWTO said that the growth must be considered with caution as it compares with a particularly weak period of 2009 – the worst months of the global economic crisis.
*China overtook France to take fourth position in the top ten ranking of international tourism spenders last year.
Chinese expenditure on international tourism has been the fastest to grow in the last decade, up from seventh position in 2005. Even during last year’s crisis, tourism expenditure by China increased by 21%, UNWTO figures show.
France, the US and Spain continue to be leaders in both arrivals and receipts, albeit in a different order.
France continues to lead the ranking of the world’s major tourism destinations in terms of arrivals and ranks third in receipts.
The US ranks first in receipts and second in arrivals.
Spain maintains its position as the second biggest earner worldwide and the first in Europe, and ranks third in arrivals.
Both Turkey and Germany climbed one position in the ranking of arrivals to seventh and eighth places, respectively. In arrivals, Malaysia entered the top ten in ninth place.
by Phil Davies
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