ITB report predicts worldwide travel trends

The number of tourists visiting European destinations in 2009 is expected to contract slightly and, given the current economic environment, things could get worse.

But Europeans earning in euro who retain their jobs in the economic slump will find non-eurozone destinations more affordable.

These are the initial findings and predictions from the ITB World Travel Trends Report 2009, which will be presented during the world’s leading annual travel show, ITB Berlin, on March 11 during the Future Day of the ITB Convention, and will be published before the end of the same month.

The report, produced by IPK International, suggests that new tourist arrivals records are likely to be broken 2011-2012.

“While Europe’s medium to longer-term inbound and outbound travel prospects are good the key issue no one can safely predict is just how deep or prolonged the immediate downturn will be,” said Rolf Freitag, president and CEO of IPK.

“No two recessions are alike. So when national economies revive, will travel immediately pick up, or will there be a time lag?”

IPK says final tourism figures for 2008 are still being collated.

However, as the economic slump took hold worldwide, Europe’s appeal faded fastest in long-haul source markets.

ETC estimates suggest that arrivals from the US, Japan, China and South Korea were down last year.

In contrast, visitors from India to Europe were not deterred. Some destinations saw double-digit growth from this market.

Initial findings from IPK International’s latest research, to be published in the World Travel Trends Report 2009, suggest Europeans are poised to choose destinations closer to home.

“As more than 50% of arrivals to all destinations around the world depend on Europeans, this could be bad news for long-haul destinations in Asia, the Americas and Africa,” said Freitag.

“The 3% growth in European outbound travel we were seeing in the first three quarters of last year is likely to evaporate and probably turn negative in 2009,” he said.

Germany and the UK together account for 35% of total European outbound trips.

With both economies in recession, destinations around the world may have to look to new European source markets such as Russia, Finland, Norway and Sweden, which all posted above average outbound growth for much of 2008.