Operators made correct capacity decisions, says report

Monday, 19 Feb, 2002 0

January statistics from market research company ACNielsen suggest that the operators have made the right capacity decisions for this summer, contradicting research published last week which suggested that they had underestimated demand.

According to the results of ACNielsen’s new TravelTrack service – which covers between 85%-90% of all operator bookings – package holiday sales during January 2002 “have performed within expectations.” It says that bookings have fallen by 11% against the same period a year ago. On a season to date basis, bookings are now down by 15% – which matches the capacity cuts implemented by the big four.

ACNielsen says that that by reining in capacity, the operators have managed to maintain control over holiday prices. It says that during the month of January the average holiday cost £559 per passenger – an increase of 5% against the January 2001 price of £531. For the season as a whole, prices have increased by 3%.

The figures contradict research released last week by independent strategy and private equity specialist Latitude which said that operators have underestimated the fall in demand for package holidays and may be forced into heavy discounting this summer as a result.

In contrast, according to ACNielsen, the operators seem to have made the right decisions. It believes that bookings for this summer will follow a similar pattern to summer 1991 when bookings bounced back after the Gulf War. It concludes: “The improved performance of the past few months will continue and bookings will continue to catch-up. It appears that the market is likely to end in decline, but at a level within the levels of reduced capacity.”

The ACNielsen survey covers air packaged bookings only and is collected electronically from over 3000 sales points. Direct operator bookings are excluded. Full market details for January 2002 will be available as usual from ACNielsen’s Holiday Booking Survey from Thursday (February 21). For further details telephone 0121 632 3014 or email [email protected]