PATA predicts difficult year ahead

BANGKOK – PATA’s strategic intelligence chief John Koldowski says forward indicators suggest a tough 12 months for travel and tourism, but “it is not all bad news”.

In a brief state-of-play analysis, Koldowski says the Asia Pacific region continues to do well in international travel and tourism, reporting growth in foreign arrivals year-to-date of 5.4 percent.

“While this is certainly down on the corresponding period for last year (8 percent), it is never-the-less on a par with the 2006 figure (4.7 percent) and continues the cyclical progression of the last few years.”

notes that a physical count of arrivals tells only one side of the story “and there are reports already filtering in that suggest the current economic climate and a number of other factors are taking their toll on the length of time visitors are spending in a given destination as well as on the revenues generated by these same visitors”.

“Furthermore, a number of forward indicators suggest that the next 12 months or so could be even more difficult. Already, airline operating figures from IATA show that air carriers in Asia and the Pacific saw reduced numbers in August (minus 3.1 percent) coming on the back of a softening demand in July (minus 0.5 percent).

“In a similar fashion, AAPA reports that member carriers collectively are seeing a flattening in demand for air services,” said Koldowski.

“Wall Street is having an impact as well; as the Dow Jones slid drastically last Monday, a number of tourism-related stocks – particularly publicly-listed airlines – followed suit.

“While a rebound is currently underway, the last few days never-the-less show how the fortunes of our industry are tightly connected to overall business sentiment.

“Apart from demand issues, travel and tourism operators are also becoming increasingly nervous about their access to credit, that business lifeline that is so essential for the normal operations of so many of the SMEs that make up a significant proportion of our industry suppliers.”

Koldowski added, “Generally speaking, the accommodation sector across Asia Pacific is holding up reasonably well with most operating statistics showing growth in the year-to-date period. It may well be however that domestic demand is holding these figures up in the short-term so even here there is no room for complacency.

“Some hoteliers in fact, are already warning of a tightening of demand over the next few months and possibly well into 2009, at least in some parts of the region.”

More light may be shed on what is ahead for the hospitality industry when leading tourism industry futurist Dr Ian Yeoman delivers his keynote address at the upcoming PATA Tourism Strategy Forum. 


The complimentary October 30 – November 1 event in Kunming, China, will focus on best practices in research and its application in the development and execution of tourism strategy.

Over two days, delegates will attend five interactive 
workshops as well as a China-focused seminar.