There are signs of tourism growth but any recovery remains subject to concerns about growing unemployment and taxation, warns the United Nations World Tourism Organisation.
Speaking at ITB in Berlin, secretary general Taleb Rifai, outlined a drop in international tourim arrivals in 2009 by 4% to a figure of 880 million and the even more dramatic fall of 6% in international tourism receipts.
He said that one results of this was that the eyes of UNWTO had been opened to the increased benefits of domestic tourism which, to some extent, had softened the blow of 2009 as the worst year ever experienced by the tourism industry worldwide.
Although UNWTO now takes a positive view of growth in international tourism arrivals in 2010 – expecting them to rise by 3% or 4%, the secretary general cautioned that this was against the low 2009 figures.
It was only likley to bring world tourism back to 2007 levels at the most and tourism receipts are not expected to recover at the same rate.
What worries the UNWTO most of all is the continuing likelihood that worldwide unemployment is on the increase.
This would lead to a drop in tourism spend and bring a feeling of insecurity back to the market just as tourism was showing signs of receovery.
The other major concern is the huge increase in public account deficits which Rifai said may well lead to the early withdrawal of tourism stimulus programmes and a demand for higher taxation.
Tourism "is an easy industry to tax," he warned.
by John Bell
