At the NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Forum in New York on June 1, 2026, Tourism Economics highlighted a cautiously optimistic outlook for U.S. travel demand, with President Adam Sacks pointing to a resilient consumer backdrop despite weakening sentiment indicators.
Speaking during the event, Sacks noted that U.S. consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest recorded levels in decades, yet underlying spending patterns continue to defy expectations. “We’ve seen real consumption continue to grow,” he said, underscoring the disconnect between sentiment and actual travel behavior.
A key stabilizing factor, he explained, remains the labor market. With unemployment currently around 4.3%, employment conditions continue to support household spending and travel demand. Sacks described the job market as “hanging in there pretty impressively,” adding that while hiring momentum is expected to slow, a significant deterioration is not anticipated in the near term.
Tourism Economics also pointed to the increasingly pronounced K-shaped nature of the U.S. economy as a structural driver of travel demand. Higher-income households continue to account for a disproportionate share of leisure travel spending, particularly in accommodation. Sacks noted that 51% of leisure lodging expenditure now comes from households earning $150,000 or more annually, while households earning $200,000+ have risen to 11% of all U.S. households, up from 6% in 2018.
“It’s one of the reasons the hotel industry has managed to grow, even with the economic effects on the lower end of the spectrum,” he said.
On accommodation trends, Sacks said hotels are currently outperforming short-term rentals in demand growth. For the first four months of 2026, hotel room nights sold rose by around 2%, compared with growth of roughly 1% to 1.5% in the short-term rental sector.
Domestic travel in the U.S. to balance for declining international arrivals
International travel trends remain more mixed. Inbound travel to the U.S. declined by 4.3% in the first part of the year, following a 2.5% drop in 2025. However, Sacks suggested that stronger domestic demand is helping to offset some of this weakness.
He also highlighted a modest shift in travel flows, noting that outbound travel from the U.S. is down around 2% this year. This, he said, is contributing to a partial “reshoring” effect, with some Americans opting for domestic trips instead of overseas travel.
Looking ahead, Tourism Economics is expecting a return to growth in international visitation, forecasting around 3% growth in inbound travel to the U.S. in 2026, following last year’s 5.5% decline. However, Sacks cautioned that the market remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
“We’re still down 15% from 2019,” he said, adding that recovery is expected to gradually accelerate into 2027 as global travel normalizes further.
