The opening of the Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link in January 2027 is expected to transform cross-border travel and consumer spending, with Singapore projected to record a net outbound spending increase of S$290 million (US$225 million) annually in neighboring Johor Bahru.
According to a new study jointly commissioned by the Singapore Business Federation (SBF), the Restaurant Association of Singapore (RAS) and the Singapore Retailers Association (SRA), the shift represents about 0.4% of Singapore’s total retail and food and beverage sales in 2025.
Improved rail connectivity is expected to encourage Singapore residents to spend an additional US$814 million each year in Johor Bahru. At the same time, Malaysian visitors are forecast to inject US$586 million annually into Singapore’s retail and dining sectors.
The report concludes that the RTS Link will accelerate a structural shift in cross-border consumer behavior rather than create a temporary change.
Cross-border travel set to surge
Researchers estimate the RTS Link will generate 11.2 million additional annual round trips from Singapore to Johor Bahru and another 3.3 million round trips in the opposite direction.
That equates to roughly 39,700 daily passenger trips, with outbound journeys by Singapore residents expected to increase by 51%.
The study suggests Singaporeans will continue crossing the border primarily for everyday purchases, with groceries, pharmacies, restaurants and beauty products accounting for the largest share of spending.
Johor Bahru residents, meanwhile, are expected to behave more like leisure travelers when visiting Singapore, concentrating their spending on premium shopping, entertainment, hotels, dining and major events.
SBF Chief Policy and Operating Officer Musa Fazal said Singaporeans tend to spend across a wide range of categories in Johor Bahru, while Malaysian visitors typically focus on tourism-related experiences in Singapore.
Winners and losers across Singapore
The report forecasts Singapore’s downtown core will benefit the most from increased Malaysian visitation, capturing 78% of the projected inbound retail impact.
Outside the central business district, however, retailers are likely to face stronger competition from Johor Bahru. The eastern region is expected to be relatively resilient thanks to attractions such as Jewel Changi Airport and Changi Airport retail.
Businesses in northern Singapore are also expected to experience less disruption, as residents there already make frequent shopping trips across the border.
Retailers urged to focus on experiences
Retail and food and beverage businesses contributed approximately US$12.9 billion to Singapore’s GDP in 2025, employed 17.5% of the local workforce, and generated nearly 31% of tourism receipts.
Industry leaders believe competing on price alone will become increasingly difficult once the RTS Link opens.
Instead, retailers and restaurants are being encouraged to differentiate themselves through better service, unique customer experiences and locally distinctive products.
Industry calls for government support
The study recommends closer collaboration between government agencies, landlords and industry groups to help businesses adapt to the new cross-border environment.
Among the proposals are expanded consumer voucher programs, incentives to strengthen local retail offerings, and measures to encourage Malaysian visitors to spend more time (and more money) in Singapore.
Recommendations also include expanding major events, developing new entertainment districts, enhancing nighttime attractions, supporting cross-border tourism packages and extending tax-refund programs.
The research, conducted in March 2026, surveyed around 1,700 Singapore residents and 400 Johor Bahru residents, using consumer surveys, Mastercard transaction data, government statistics and industry consultations. The analysis focused exclusively on leisure travelers and excluded Malaysians who commute daily to Singapore for work.
