The US Department of Transportation’s new tarmac delay rule, designed to limit the amount of time passengers are stuck on planes waiting to take off, will cause an estimated 2,600 flights to be canceled because airlines would prefer to cancel a flight than risk the hefty fines.
Because of the design of aircraft networks, those 2,600 canceled flights will drive another 2,600 indirect cancellations, said the AP.
“In short, the new rules will mean that 110,000 passengers will be spared an average of 3.26 hours of taxi-out delays, but the cost will be 5,200 canceled flights affecting 400,000 passengers,” the study found. The analysis was a joint effort of Marks Aviation LLC, The Airline Zone LLC and The George Washington University Aviation Program.
Their study used historical data of tarmac delays, and the causes and patterns of extended tarmac delays. The report also analyzed airline responses to the tarmac delay rule, saying that while the Department of Transportation had projected that public benefits exceed public costs from the tarmac initial results indicate that public costs have far outweighed realized benefits.
“We conclude that DOT’s tarmac rules and punitive fine threats have driven significant cancellations and public costs far in excess of quantifiable benefits,” according to the report
The rule and enforcement strategy have created significant public harm, according to the study.
For every three-hour tarmac delay prevented by the rule, two flights will be directly cancelled and another two flights will be indirectly cancelled.
The net cost to public welfare from the DOT rules approaches $4 billion, discounted over a 20-year period.
By David Wilkening
