Thailand continues to face gloomy perspectives for its tourism. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is now projecting just 33.4 million overseas visitors in 2025. A first estimation by the agency earlier in the year predicted 39 million international tourists and was then revised to 37 million.
However, with the new forecast, TAT now predicts a 6% decline from 2024, largely driven by weakening flows from Southeast and East Asia.
Most recent data show that the decline in international tourist arrivals is accelerating. As of September 21, Thailand had received about 23.45 million foreign visitors. This represents a 7.44 percent decrease year-on-year.
Many markets not responsive anymore
Looking at the last quarter of the year, TAT anticipates monthly arrivals of 2.62 million in October, 3.07 million in November, and 3.63 million in December. The tourism marketing agency warns that these will not be enough to offset steep declines from key regional markets.
TAT projects arrivals from East Asia will shrink by 25%— largely due to a sharp fall in Chinese traffic — while Southeast Asia will see an 8% drop. Within East Asia, visitors from China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea are down significantly.
Japanese arrivals remain relatively stable, showed Rung Kanjanaviroj, Executive Director of Planning at TAT. In Southeast Asia, fewer Malaysians are visiting Thailand — a trend the authority is monitoring closely, suspecting travelers may be gravitating toward alternative destinations.
Europe performs best to Thailand
By contrast, some long haul source markets are holding up better. TAT expects arrivals from Europe to grow 15 % until year-end, and those from South Asia, the Americas, and Oceania each to rise 8%; the Middle East is seen growing 4%.
At IFTM Top Resa in Paris, TAT Director for France Suriya Sittichai, confirmed the strong performance of European inbound. Total arrivals from January to August are up by 15%, representing 5.3 million travelers compared to 4.16 million for the same period of 2024.
Among European top markets, Poland performed best with a growth of 33.51%, followed by France up 14.19%, the Netherlands up 9.8% and Germany up 9.72%. Italy and the UK progressed more moderately up respectively by 3.65% and 3.2%. Sweden was the only major market recording a drop at -1.54%.
Meanwhile, U.S. arrivals stagnated at -0.29% while, in the Middle East, the two most important markets, Saudi Arabia and the UAE showed negative performances, respectively down by 16.17% and 3.5%.
Still, the TAT warns that boosting per-traveler spending will be challenging against a backdrop of global economic uncertainties.
Intense competition from neighboring countries, coupled with concerns over travel safety and the ongoing border dispute with Cambodia, is compounding the headwinds. Although most provinces in Thailand did not experience a drop in tourist arrivals.
