Could the Costa tragedy swamp the cruise industry?

When the Costa Concordia capsized off the coast of Tuscany, Italy last month the captain allegedly deserted the ship, and women and children were said to have been pushed out of the way by crewmen in a Titanic-like panic. The incident left 32 dead, though only 17 bodies have been found.  

The ship’s captain, Francesco Schettino, has been accused of multiple manslaughter and desertion. And the latest development was that seven crew members are also under investigation.

So the question now is whether the incident’s wake will lead to dramatic changes in the previously thriving cruise business?

Yes and no.

Passengers on cruises will now have to complete a safety briefing and lifeboat drill before their ship leaves port. This new industry-wide policy was the result of some newly boarded Concordia passengers not going through the drills.

Passengers on cruises will now have to complete a safety briefing and lifeboat drill before their ship leaves port. This new industry-wide policy was put into force after it transpired that some newly-boarded Concordia passengers did not go through the drills.

"Currently, ships only have to hold the so-called muster drill within 24 hours of passengers embarking, a problem which apparently caused panic on board the Concordia," reports Travel Mail.

Costa Concordia ran aground before the ship’s drill was scheduled, but because the ship listed and ended up on its side, the drill in this case would not have made any difference.

For future cruise passengers, this might mean some delays. Passengers might also be asked to board earlier, for example, so there’s time for the drill.

But cruise industry experts said the move was a positive one. "An excellent first step," said Carolyn Spencer Brown, editor-in-chief of cruisecritic.co.uk.

In response to the disaster, a Cruise Industry Operational Safety Review was launched to assess the effectiveness of safety procedures on board ships, which is likely to lead to other changes in procedure.

As details unfold in upcoming court trials and more news leaks out, there could very well be other calls for industry changes.

But what about the impact on cruise popularity and pricing?

There was some immediate negative effect on prices, but most observers don’t see any serious long-term damage when it comes to the growing popularity of cruises for several reasons: they are perceived as inexpensive and they provide one-stop lodging for cruisers to have a variety of travel destinations and experiences.

Then, there’s the question of future pricing. Will low prices during the so-called "Wave Season" when many cruises are sold drop even more?

There have been no serious declines in pricing halfway through the Wave Season, reports Robin Farley, an analyst with UBS Investment Research who is viewed as an expert on cruises.

"We also note that cruise lines are offering other non-ticket pricing incentives, such as onboard credits, to stimulate demand as an alternative to reducing ticket pricing," he said.

Farley’s UBS Cruise Pricing Survey found that for the 2012 cruising season, Caribbean cruise prices have been "up moderately over the last two months. Alaska had also been moderately up".

Mediterranean cruise pricing remained relatively flat but there was no downward spiral.

By David Wilkening

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