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Study shows air travel helps spread global flu
A new study showing the link between air travel and the spread of influenza may help health officials decide on flight restrictions in the event of a global flu pandemic.
Harvard researchers found the decline in US air travel following 9-11 also slowed the spread of that year’s annual flu outbreak.
“The delay was modest — flu deaths peaked about two weeks later than usual that winter — and by the time the season was over, the same number of people had died from the disease as in a typical year,” wrote the Washington Post.
But pandemic flu is expected to be much more deadly than conventional flu, so having a few weeks of extra time to deliver protective drugs or vaccines could make a big difference in total mortality, according to the scientists who conducted the study.
“If you knew there was a bubbling pandemic in Southeast Asia, you could potentially consider the idea of targeted travel advisories and targeted flight bans,” said the study’s co-author John Brownstein.
The finding was the “first study that actually shows there’s a major contribution of airline travel” that uses real-life data rather than computer models,” said co-author Kenneth Mandl.
Both researchers pointed out, however, that there are many implications to curtailing air traffic that include its economic impact.
“When you look at the big picture, do you really want to shut down air travel?” asked Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
The authors of the study found the 9-11 pattern during a routine analysis of flu data from 1996 through 2005 when they discovered the 2001-2002 flu season had different numbers.
There have been recent warnings that a pandemic of virulent influenza could emerge.
Officials of various world health organizations have been debating the issue of travel restrictions in the event of an outbreak.
Some plans call for travel restrictions only as a last resort.
Report by David Wilkening
David
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